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Troy’s October 2021 Market Update – Has the market really slowed?!

Troy Market Update October 2021 – Watch Video

Thanks for joining me down below here! Feel free to turn on my market video above and listen or dig a little deeper here with me on the stats! I want to dig into a couple key indicators of today’s market and how they may effect you if you are thinking about buying, selling or investing in real estate.

Highlights in the Market

Active Listings are DOWN just under 10% compared to the same time last year (-9.9%)

New Listings are DOWN just under 1.5% compared to the same time last year (-1.4%)

SOLD Properties are relatively flat UP 1% compared to the same time last year (+1%)

Under Contract/Pending Properties are UP 30% compared to same time last year (+30.1%)

Interest Rates are UP from 1/8% to 1/4% compared to 1 yr ago (+0.18 to +0.27% on 30 yr fixed) … (From 3% one year ago to 3.18% today and they were 3.27% last week)

Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/30-year-mortgage-rates.aspx

So what does all of this actually mean to you? Below I will break down what it means to you if you are a buyer, seller or investor in the market.

Buyers

The relatively stable buyer demand with the seasonal drop in new listings has created movement back to a tighter inventory environment. Although the days of 20 offers from spring and summer are gone, 5 or 6 strong offers creates enough competition to continue driving prices up. We have seen the strongest demand in the sub $500k price range in suburban school districts.

The interest rates continue to be at historic lows, however, buyers who sat on the sidelines “waiting for the crash” might be surprised at what there payment will be now, especially if we see the Federal Reserve begin to pull back on their purchasing of mortgaged backed securities, which has kept rates arbitrarily low for the last couple of years. They have said they may start pulling back on that as soon as November, so we will wait to see what effect that has on rates. Certainly buying power is affected when rates rise, which will either slow demand or cause the lower price ranges to become even more competitive.

Sellers

The current environment continues to be the strongest in years, if not ever for most sellers. The extremely low inventory packaged with stable buyer demand has continued to create competitive offer environments for sellers who have priced their home appropriately. We have seen the rate of appreciation slow a bit as some areas have bumped into pricing ceilings, especially when pricing in traditionally lower priced areas begins to bang up against that $400-$500k range. We continue to see very strong demand in suburban and rural school districts which were experiencing less growth compared with urban areas Pre-Covid.

Investors

The investor market in Central Ohio remains very tight. With very little foreclosure activity, the bulk of “off market” buying has happened through direct prospecting by investors. This has led to less hitting the actual market. When something does hit the market there are often multiple offers. A lot of the demand in multi family real estate in particular has been compounded by interest in our market from cities on the “coasts” whose average sales prices are significantly higher. Columbus metro has a very attractive average sales price as well as very strong rents for the price. The combination of those two factors makes our market very attractive for investors from out of the area. I average one to two inquires from investors (often from California) who have never been to Columbus, but are interested in purchasing here, either in the form of long term rentals or in “flips”. If prices continue to rise for multi-family properties and rents don’t rise at the same pace, I expect demand to decrease some, especially from out of state investors. Other lower priced markets which are in a similar place that we were in 5 or so years ago will start to grab the attention of the bargain hunters from the coasts. Until that shows up in the numbers, we will continue to see strong demand from outside the market.

Thank you for checking out my latest post, please follow us for more information. If you would like to have a quick chat about the market or get a market analysis for your particular home or investment area, don’t hesitate to reach out!

Troy

Founder & Managing Partner

Marsh Home Group of KW Consultants Realty

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July 2021 Market – Does Rising Inventory Mean Pending “Burst”?

Short Market Update – July 2021

With google searches for “is the real estate bubble about to burst?” topping the search charts, all the ocnversation around real estate has been, how long can this last?! Below are both my short video (for those of you with no patience 😉 and my long video that goes into more depth and detail of the Central Ohio housing market through July 2021.

The way that I chose to demonstrate where we really are from a “facts” perspective is through the “months of inventory” stat. This is how the industry as a whole measures the “supply vs demand” in the current market. The basic equation is this:

Current Active Homes and Condos on the Market / Total Closed Units last month = Months of Inventory

To put this graph into perspective, the industry standard is that anything under 4 months is a Sellers Market, between 4 and 6 months is a Balanced Market and more than 6 months is a Buyers market.

As I always say, real estate is local, so if you are interested in what is happening in your city or even your neighborhood specifically, I’m happy to do a personal analysis for you! Just shoot me a quick text or email!

Troy

614-325-8394 or troy@marshhomegroup.com

In Depth Analysis – Central Ohio Real Estate – July 2021

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Is the Fire of the Market Burning Out?!

Phew…. This market is crazy! Having been in real estate for 17+ years this is the craziest market I’ve seen, so I went to talk to my colleagues for 40+ years and asked, “Have you ever seen anything like this? ” The answer has consistently been a resounding, “NO!”. As you can guess, the market hasn’t slowed down. Have we had some more much needed listings come on the market? Yes we have. Has that solved our inventory issue? NO!

As you can see above, the new listings rose by 22.5% compared to the first 2 weeks of June 2020. That was followed by an increase of 27% increase in the pending listings. So we should continue to expect the sold homes to increase year over year. This is all happening in addition to an explosion of new build sales that typically don’t show up in these numbers.

Overall, my long term outlook is very strong for Columbus. With an increasing population (the forecast is for that trend to continue), a group of young people who have rented longer than average and are now wanting to buy and what I like to call the “divorce effect” there is no end in site to increasing demand here in Central Ohio. Next month I will explain the divorce effect as well as one of the reasons why we are so tight on inventory here in Central Ohio.

Thank you for reading! We are so grateful for you! I’m always happy to jump on a call or do a quick loom video to update you on the value of your home or what is happening in your neighborhood. If you aren’t already receiving my monthly market update for your neighborhood, let me know and I will get you set up!

Troy

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Appreciation in 2020 … It’s Crazy!

Each month we have been talking about inventory (or lack thereof).  We have talked about both the reasons behind it and whether we think it will continue.  We haven’t however talked as much about the effects of that in the long term on both your current investment as well as future investments. The numbers were formally released for October and we saw staggering numbers… 

What jumps off the page in these numbers is October 2020 compared to October 2019 in both Average and Median Sales price. To see prices jumpy by 15 and 17 percent respectively compared to one year ago is unprecedented. This has been driven by the low inventory and affordable interest rates. These two things combine to produce an affordability that despite the higher prices, buyers continue to seek out new housing options.

With interest rates back at the bottom (near historic lows) as well as the limited inventory (down 44.8% year over year – see below) there seems to be no end in sight to the current market.

The indicators above are driving YTD sales towards records in terms of units and volume of homes sold. We are now almost 3% higher in closed sales than on this same date last year and for the most part this is not including new build sales which are also up substantially (many are not listed or recorded in the MLS and therefore are not included in these numbers).

What does this mean for You?

Experts across the industry as well as our opinion here at Marsh Home Group believe that the pandemic which has forced people to spend more time in their house and also spend less due to eating at restaurants less, traveling less and overall doing less will continue to drive more sales in 2021. Interest rates will also continue to play a positive roll in the housing market, government guidance as well as further promised stimulus promises to keep interest rates around historic lows despite gains in the stock market. The extremely low interest rates have allowed for the appreciation to go almost unnoticed in people’s monthly payments. The major thing everyone will be on the lookout for is rising rates at some point in the future, however, at this point that isn’t expected in 2021.Experts expect interest rates to stay low and activity and rising prices to continue into 2021.

What are your real estate goals for 2021?

We here at Marsh Home Group pride ourselves in a consultative approach to real estate selling and purchasing. Whether you have a question about the market or you want to know how to improve your home for an expected sale is 2021 or beyond, we are always willing to help.

Give us a call at 614-750-2144 to discuss your real estate goals for 2021 and beyond!